【Two Speeds of Pacific Voice】

A former colleague of mine from DKI-APCSS, Dr. Alfred Oehlers, an expert on the Indo-Pacific, particularly Pacific nations, provided a detailed analysis of regional dynamics today.

While Pacific nations have historically alternated diplomatic recognition between China and Taiwan since the 1980s, an increasing number have recently severed ties with Taiwan to establish relations with China. However, the protests issued by the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea in response to China's recent launch of a nuclear-capable missile into the Pacific represent an "unprecedented scale of the rebuke," indicating that China cannot simply "buy silence through its aid."

The analysis identifies a "two-speed" dynamic in the region: one pace is determined by the specific circumstances of individual nations, while the other is shaped by the collective solidarity of the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum. Discussions should not focus exclusively on criticizing China; they must also address missile exercises and the legacy of nuclear testing conducted by the United States and France in the Pacific, he points out.

Japan should keep an eye on developments in this area, whether the nations will build consensus in time for the Pacific Islands Forum leaders' summit in Palau this August, or if the response will remain limited to isolated protests. Please read this very insightful analysis.